It's going to pass, Bart Stupak is caving. What's more, my guess is that the Senate Dems are going to leave the moderate House Dems hanging out to dry after the House passes the senate version of the bill. They will try to pass a reconciliation bill to assuage the concerns of the House Dems who are holding their nose to vote for the senate bill, but they won't get 51 votes. There will be public funds for abortion, there will be no improvements to cost cutting, and we will all be screwed. Watch.
I predict you are wrong on all counts. Well - almost all. I think you're right that, IF the House passed it, the Senate dems would absolutely, definitely screw the House over and Obama would sign it without any of the changes promised to the House. Actually, I don't think they'd even bother having a reconciliation vote, it would just go directly to Obama for signing. If they actually did bother to have a pretend-vote, no one would buy it as a sincere attempt, and it would just serve to make the final signature seem less legitimate, so I doubt they'd try.
And I think everyone in the House knows it. Which is why they won't cave.
Stupak, incidentally, says all the talk about him caving or compromising is BS:
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?
FhZTY3NjM=
Qwinn
P.S. This is NOT to say that they won't pass it in some other underhanded way, like changing or wiping their ass with the rules (in which case there's a good chance the Supreme Court would overturn it). But I do *not* believe that anyone in the House is going to buy a verbal unenforceable promise from the Senate to do something after it passes the House. Even if they wanted to cave, they wouldn't risk being made fools of like that. There's a very old rivalry between the House and the Senate that would make any such "Duuuhh, okay, we'll trust you" impossible, IMO.
Oh. There is one other thing you are right about. We will all be screwed. I just don't think that's the way it'll happen.
Last edited by Qwinn (2010-03-11 09:46:56)
"Your employer, it's estimated, would see premiums fall by as much as 3,000 percent, which means they could give you a raise." - Barack Obama, on why you should love Obamacare.