COVID-19

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Comments

  • What are the percentages of "normal" age distribution. Is it because the youngin's are fragrantly disregarding warnings because initial reports said that they have nothing to worry about?
  • I suspect that's it. And I saw the term "Boomer Remover" in reference to the virus for the first time today.
  • Why is that concerning?
  • What statement are you questioning?

  • The one where you said it was concerning.
  • Oh, initially that there was a larger % of younger people listed as “severe” than I think was expected. I‘ve reconsidered for a couple of reasons.
  • OK, thanks.
  • Saw an article at WaPo that speculated that the US may have a distinct advantage ("secret weapon") over other countries like Italy/Korea/China with regards to the spread of the virus. Our cultural practices and population density benefit us. Specifically:
    - Population density of ~94 people per square mile versus
    --- 397 for China, 532 for Italy, 1366 for Korea
    - Less interaction while commuting
    --- 80% of US works from home and/or commutes in private car versus public transit
    - Single family dwellings versus high density apartments/rowhomes
    - Less likelihood of living with parents

    All that said, I've been tracking the numbers from the Bing/Covid site, and at the current world total case growth rate, everyone in the world would be infected by early June, and everyone will be dead shortly thereafter. Ok, I made that last part up.
  • On a Teams chat with coworkers and one of my peers is claiming that her "FBI friend" said that Trump is going to shut down the whole country today. Supposedly an announcement is imminent. She was rushing out to the grocery store to get stocked up. I'm kinda scratching my head here...
  • I practiced social distancing before it was cool.

    For lunch, I had a taste for a plate of brains. Should I worry?
  • Zed - It seems like growth rate isn't the accurate term right now. I'd almost call it discovery rate.
  • You are a riot.
  • ZedZed
    edited March 20
    Bird wrote, "Zed - It seems like growth rate isn't the accurate term right now. I'd almost call it discovery rate."

    Absolutely. Its totally about discovery & reporting. I like how China 'is reporting' no new cases.

  • ZedZed
    edited March 20
    We hear about fatality rates percentages. To be honest, we need to look at the numbers of "Not Dead Yet" and "Shuffled Off This Mortal Coil" versus only the number of closed cases, not the total case rate. Total case rate includes active cases which have not been resolved one way or the other.

    As of today's reported numbers, resolved cases can be broken down into the following:
    Not Dead Yet - 89.5%
    Shuffled Off This Mortal Coil - 10.4%
    Locked in the CDC's sub-basement - 0.1%

    60.7% of the total cases (~256k) are active currently.
  • The active case reporting rate has been increasing over the past few days. Today's number was ~17.7% higher than yesterday. Which probably means everyone will be infected and/or dead in late May now. :P
  • I don't see how we ever get any confidence in the denominator, so I don't see how the mortality rates can be credible.

    If a lot of people get it, and it's a fever and sniffle, they aren't tested and may not even suspect that they had the new flu. If people aren't tested unless they have scary symptoms, then the bias is inevitable. If we have an elderly population that is insulated from the worst effects of the flu by vaccine, and that population is perched to be taken by some kind of infection either bred in a hospital or in Ghina, they will also skew the results to give an impression of greater lethality.
  • I will concede that to you, counselor, but how else can we seed fear into the hearts and minds of the population without numbers and statistics?
  • True enough.

    In a way, I blame DJT for the hysteria.

    He wins, surprising everyone, maybe including himself. Hillary starts the stolen election narrative and dems start talking about impeachment the day after the election. Krugman guaranties that an economic depression will follow. The derangement virus spreads, and you've a population who live with their opinion turned up to 11 for years on end. The virus resists all treatment including a 50% increase in stock values and vanishing unemployment in populations who've never seen nearly universal employment. Yet, the infected write columns about tweets, structural racism and metoo activism, and they get pissier the better things get.

    These weakened people are primed for a cataclysm, having predicted 24 of the last one disasters.
  • That Bing COVID tracker doesn't seem very accurate. Take my state for example. The CDC says that Texas has 143 confirmed cases. It also indicates that local numbers should be considered more accurate. The Tx Dept of Health and Human Services (linked from the CDC) says that we have 304 confirmed, statewide. But that Bing tool is claiming that we're up to 417. The info tab says that it's grabbing its data from the CDC, WHO, ECDC, and...

    Wikipedia *rolleyes*

  • I think part of the issue is whose test it was. the CDC tests I think just get reported to CDC, while local tests go to local departments of health.

    No idea what Bing's source is for the data.
  • edited March 22
    Bruh... I just said what their sources are.
  • LOL you sure did. I only half read your post.
  • edited March 22
    You got tl;dr'd, bird.

    My county has been identified as a hotspot.
    A retirement home may have been hit hard.
  • edited March 22
    Here is a dashboard from the WHO that I like because you can parse out by country and then see the rate curve. Their data (for the US) is coming from the CDC, so like I mentioned above, it's probably missing cases that local and state agencies aren't bothering to report back. But I think its useful for general trend analysis.

    https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

    I'm expecting to see some big changes in data and trending over the next week as testing has been ramping up, but also to see if the isolation measures that started kicking in have had any impact. Virulent but asymptomatic people hitting that 4-6 day crossover point where they would *start* to show symptoms.
  • So my wife had a 102 temp Friday & Saturday. No symptoms otherwise & feels fine. It could be anything but I'm working from home until further notice.

    I worked Saturday for about 4 hrs & got a shit ton accomplished.

    No house dress.
    Maybe a halter top & some jorts for casual Monday?
  • Damn, Mark. Hope she's feeling okay. Definitely need to keep her isolated even if all she has is a bad cold. Being immuno-compromised is no bueno.
  • Thanks, Chris.
    & That's the thing. It could be any number of bugs.
    My youngest was sick a couple weeks back with a killer sore throat.

    Strep is going around too.
  • I had a coworker out the week before last with a really nasty flu. We had to reassure everyone that it wasn't corona.

    And down here the pine and oak pollen has kicked into high gear. My car looks like its covered in brown snow because it hasn't moved for a week. That is making everyone cough, hack and sneeze.
  • edited March 22
    Exactly.

    We're erring on the side of caution, but she's not showing any other symptoms.

    Loading the software from her work on our home pc has been the biggest pia.

  • Yeah, pollen here in ATL is nuts too. Fortunately itchy eyes isn't a symptom of Covid19.

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