COVID-19

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  • The idea of “flattening the curve“ is valid.

    I predict that if we can manage to flatten the curve and start showing a reduction in new cases sometime in April, people will begin to relax a little bit and stop worrying so much about it.

    I also predict that once people see that the death rate is fairly low and almost all of it is in the most vulnerable part of the population, from a medical standpoint, they will stop panicking.

    It’s fear that is the biggest problem with this virus. People don’t know what’s going to happen and they are terrified about what will.
  • I think you're right, though if we start co-mingling too soon because of an initial decrease in new cases, we'll likely see a second spike.
  • edited March 16
    Nak wrote, "I also predict that once people see that the death rate is fairly low and almost all of it is in the most vulnerable part of the population, from a medical standpoint, they will stop panicking.

    It’s fear that is the biggest problem with this virus. People don’t know what’s going to happen and they are terrified about what will. "

    Indeed.

    Somehow I am on a State Bar Assoc. email list. Someone asked about how to schedule depos in the current environment. For a reason I don't understand, a Doc from Akron posted about how people need to take this more seriously, and how he hopes he is later accused of over-reaction.

    Single subject news coverage is a real problem. When Comey testified, that's all the news was about. When impeachment was pending, no one could speak to anything else. For a while, Mayor Pete B. was the shiny new object. Now it's all about this virus. In a couple of weeks, people will move on to something else.

    You'll know the virus isn't a real problem when people begin to wear bracelets and ribbons over it.

  • ZedZed
    edited March 16
    That's a great idea... I'll start marketing black ribbons bumper sticker/magnets for "COVID Awareness".

  • For now, the situation continues to escalate:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-deaths-outside-china-exceed-those-inside-11584338720?mod=breakingnews

    *Trump On When Outbreak Will End: ‘Could Be August, Could Be July, Could Be Longer Than That’

    *Trump: ‘Someday soon, hopefully, it will end, and we’ll be back to where it was’

    *Trump: ‘Hopefully It Will Be a Best Case, Not a Worst Case’

    *Trump Says U.S. Government Not Considering Nationwide Lockdown
  • And btw, I'd like to kick the Saudis and the Russians squarely in the balls right now.
  • edited March 16
    The Ohio State Bar Assoc. thread I mentioned previously has gone full poo storm.

    The counsel who wrote the "community standards", i.e. the forum rules, for the forum has posted telling people that the forum is for transmission of fact and professional assistance, not political discussion and that he will lock the thread if this continues. A helpful counsel quoted back the pertinent portion of the rules that clearly would allow discussing whether the state's order over-steps and counsel for the Cuyahoga Board of Health posted promising to make life hard for any restaurant operator who seats people. One fellow has posted twice complaining that he has to read opinions he doesn't share. The last post I read was from a fellow just outside Columbus telling people who aren't docs to "shut up", as if docs would know anything about the limits of the state's authority.

    It's like a whole profession made of 'pool morons.
  • edited March 16
    Does anyone know whether anyone outside China has confirmed the infection rate and lethality of Covid-19? They did just sort of lose a trade war with the Trump administration...

    One of the terrible things about Trump Derangement Syndrome, is that I don't know how widespread it is among the people who might otherwise downplay the severity of this Wuhan-flu. I'm not suggesting a conspiracy, but people who might otherwise not overreact may see the negative impact of these work furloughs on the American economy, and their damage to Trump's chances for reelection as a boon. Since I don't know who else has measured Covid-19's infection rate (supposedly greater than the yearly flu) or lethality (supposedly about 3% instead of .3%, according to one source that was completely unclear about the underlying source of that data), I have *no idea* whether this is entirely unnecessary hysteria or a rational response to something genuinely more serious than the annual flu season or that year the swine-flu killed about ~500k people (~18k in the US); but Obama was President so no one panicked.
  • It's like a whole species made of 'pool morons.

    FIFY

    -

    Slap -
    I haven’t had a chance to verify it yet but I have heard that the cruise ship that people were trapped on, with the disease essentially ran it’s course freely, had 99% of the passengers recover with little to no medical intervention.
  • One of my take-aways from Osterholm's interview is that COVID-19 differs from swine flu and other outbreaks because carriers are highly virulent *and* asymptomatic for an extended amount of time. Essentially, they're shedding a shit-ton of virus while feeling perfectly healthy.
  • ZedZed
    edited March 17
  • GA has issued a judicial emergency order to suspend all non-critical court proceedings through until April 13, 2020.

    https://www.gasupreme.us/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/CJ-Melton-amended-Statewide-Jud-Emergency-order.pdf
  • Harris County (Houston and some smaller municipalities), just moved us to take out and delivery only for the next two weeks.

    We have food in the house but we’ve consciously decided to order out for dinner for the time being.
  • It occurs to me that the projected mortality rate, whether 1% or 3.4%, is somewhat contextual when it comes to real life experiences. Our kids might not know of anyone who will get seriously ill, or even die, directly outside of immediate older family members (grandparents, aunts, uncles, family fiends, etc).

    But that won’t be our experience. How many people do you know? Not intimately well. Just draw the scale down to acquaintances whose faces and names you know and see regularly. A hundred? A hundred and fifty? More? It won’t be just one of them who dies. Or even just 4 at the higher end. See, it’s likely you’re directly acquainted with a higher concentration of high risk individuals, so your experience might look like five in one hundred. Or maybe six. Or seven. I don’t know what the threshold is for “common”, but this might give us that sense.
  • The entire state of Colorado is now take-out and delivery only for restaurants and bars.

    Our governor ordered all gyms, casinos, theaters, coffeehouses, cigar bars, brew pubs and distillery pubs to close.

    This will be in effect until May 11.
  • dgmdgm
    edited March 17
    My coworker's grandmother died of COVID-19 in the Kirkland, WA nursing home. Her aunt is struggling to stay alive now too.

    A friend locally is under doctor-ordered quarantine with her kids due to a likely exposure.
  • Well, elections have been suspended here in Ohio.
  • Same in GA, postponed till May.
  • "Well, elections have been suspended here in Ohio. "

    Part of the reason I followed that OSBA thread was that one of the writer's was a bit hot-headed in his expression of the idea, but he had a point. ORC 3701.13 gives the Dept. of Health to make "special or standing orders or rules...for preventing the spread of contagious or infectious diseases...". It doesn't logically follow that those orders can be made without regard to constitutional protections.
  • I’m not really worried about the postponement per se, but I am concerned about a friend running in a primary against a machine Republican who apparently graduated from the Clinton School.

    Now she’ll need to keep spending against a deep pocket asshole for some indefinite time period.
  • Seems like your state election board should put a moratorium on any election spending during the delay. Or is that a First Amendment problem?
  • Eric, I don't care about the primaries much in themselves. I am more concerned with a "These are extraordinary times!!!" reasoning around valid legal protections.

    "Seems like your state election board should put a moratorium on any election spending during the delay. Or is that a First Amendment problem? "

    That's the sort of step that is clearly beyond state power, but also the sort of step that can be anticipated once other aspects of general order are compromised by pandering officeholders.

  • ZedZed
    edited March 20
    Here's a COVID tracker map. Currently showing a total CFR a hair under 4%. Italy & Iran are close to 7.7%.

    COVID-19 Tracker map: https://www.bing.com/covid

    Record: Total Cases/Active Cases/Recovered/Fatality
    17MAR20 - 11AM ET: 188446/100141/80803/7502
  • This is interesting. It's an interview with Dr. Amesh Adalja (Infectious Disease MD). He notes that this virus is a variation on the common cold (which suggests that we will never see a vaccine). Just beyond the minute mark, he says that the UK strategy is to get as many people infected as soon as possible while isolating the elderly. The idea is that herd immunity will be obtained if nearly everyone gets it.

  • The conversation at the 13:00 mark really highlights broader discussion I see here and elsewhere in social media, traditional media, and within my personal relationships.
  • "Same in GA, postponed till May."

    According to my liberal facebook friends this was another move by Kemp to suppress voters.

    On a related note, I see Tool is back from his 9mo hiatus over there, I hope he joins us here, I'm sure he's lurking for now. ;)
  • At 14:35 he specifically says, "until we have a vaccine" which sounds like he thinks will happen.
  • He does say that. If a vaccine were the answer for this family of viruses, wouldn't we vaccinate for the common cold?
  • I don't know. I recall from the interview on the last page, that with events like SARS, MERS, and swine flu, that vaccine work starts, but never completes because the event is over before they can finish testing. As for the common cold, it's never usually deadly. If it were available, I suspect a lot of people wouldn't bother with yearly vaccinations. Hell, it's hard enough to get people to get a flu shot and that is much worse.
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