The 2020 Democrat Nominee

 The 2020 Democrat Nominee will be Bernie Sanders. Change my mind.


  • I think it will be Joe Biden.

    My track record isn't great though.
  • Joe will be one of the last to drop out.

    So will Kamala, but in her case it will be because the party convinced her to stay in as long as possible thanks to the optics.

    Bernie will be the nominee for these reasons:

    1. Barring some sort of Black Swan event, the party doesn’t think it can win, so they need a sacrificial candidate. If that lets them get rid of Bernie, so much the better.

    2. Bernie actually believes the shit he says and that sincerity comes across as honesty. That will make him appealing to a lot of people.

    3. I like to say that if you value Socialism over Capitalism that you understand neither. That would be a fair description of most people under 40. Those people also won’t know that Bernie is a Leninist. So a large number of people voting in the Democrat primary will see him as just a nice old man who wants to help people.
  • It won't be Bernie or Biden, they are just targets to catch the first arrows and raise funds for the war chest.  The real candidate is someone like Kamala or maybe Castro.
  • Kamala is a flake who doesn’t know what her opinion is until you tell her what you want to hear.

    Castro needs to be a VP first. Still surprised that Hillary didn’t tap him for that role in 2016.
  • edited April 25
    Castro is a Latino Dukakis and lives in Beto's shaddow. There's still a big blue hard on for that guy down here. Hell, people are leaving his old ISIS-style campaign yard signs up.
  • It's been about a month since we last discussed this topic, any changes to predictions?

    The more I think about Kamala I don't think she has a chance to get the nod, she doesn't bring a state they don't already have and her appeal isn't broad enough to carry the country.  The problem with the others that are in swing states is that none of them seem capable of carrying the top of the ticket... Castro, Beto, Bootygieg.

    If Biden takes the top it would seem they would need to add a female far-lefty to the bottom.
  • No change to mine.

    Understand that the Democrats have so many candidates for the same reason that the Republicans did in 2016. The two main ones are:

    1. Most of them are actually applying for positions in the next democrat administration, whenever that occurs.

    2. The large number means name recognition becomes paramount.

    Also, keep in mind that the Democrat party isn’t actually trying to win in 2020. Don’t misunderstand me, they would like to win and if some black swan event occurs that makes it possible, they will go all in trying to win.

    The strategy at the moment is simply to try to minimize Trump’s accomplishments.

    That is why both Biden and Sanders are the people they will try to keep as long as possible. And don’t be surprised if they both end up on the ticket. In fact, that is the most likely outcome. The second most likely outcome is that the ticket has one of them plus Kamala Harris.

    If the black swan event that I mentioned does not occur it’s a good way for them to get rid of somebody that isn’t all that useful anymore if they ever were.

    If something does happen and they come to believe that they could win, both Biden and Sanders are somebody that they know they can control because they’ve already been doing it.

    Biden is always willing to take one for the team and Sanders has already demonstrated that he can be bought off; which is what they did after they stole the primary for Hillary.

    My personal belief is that the powers that be in the Democrat party see Bernie Sanders as their greatest existential threat. If he chose to, he could split the party.

    There are two main power blocks in the party. The first is the old party that is descended directly from the Tammany Hall era and was run by FDR, then the Kennedys, The Clintons and the Obamas. The second is the Marxist branch that came to prominence after Watergate and was literally run by the Soviets. Since the dissolution of the USSR it hasn’t had s real leader and at least at the moment, the most credible candidate to pick up the mantle IS Sanders; which is why he has the power to split the party and is also why they spent so much to buy him off after stealing the nomination from him the last time around.

    BIDEN doesn’t really even want to be involved and is really only there as a counter to Sanders. After 2020, Sanders is pretty much done no matter what happens because of his age.

    The absolute most critical thing for the Democrat party are to get control of their own base and to re-consolidate the power among the old guard with the Obamas in the leader ship position.
    (Note, the Obamas are already running the Old party block. They simply want to run the new one as well. )

  • I'll bet $1 to whomever will take it that there is no way Biden and Sanders will be on the same ticket.

    To me, it seems like Tammany Hall was taken over by Marxists when FDR installed them, long before Watergate.  Bernie is supported by the new-left out of Silicon Valley.
  • edited May 28
    I'd bet on Biden & Harris...and long, somewhat uncomfortable hugs.

    Or maybe Biden & Mayor Pete....along with much of the same.
  • I'll bet $1 to whomever will take it that there is no way Biden and Sanders will be on the same ticket.

    I’ll take that action.
  • 2.FOH. said:

    I'd bet on Biden & Harris...and long, somewhat uncomfortable hugs.

    Or maybe Biden & Mayor Pete....along with much of the same.

    He’ll be gone before the last primary debate.
  • edited May 29
  • Don't miss the debates tonight and tomorrow from 9-11 EST!  It's near my bedtime so I'll have to catch up on it later.
  • Slap said:


    No porn titles please.

    "Your hair doesn't smell like darkie hair.  Wanna be my running....mate?  "  Bow-chicka-bow-wow.....
  • *snort*
  • Are you saying that her hair smells clean?
  • Indeed

    & articulate and bright.

    Even Harry Reid stated he detected no Negro dialect in that hair.
  • I didn't know DeBlasio had even entered the race.

    He & Beto were pretty awful...& on that stage, that's saying something.

    I can see Castro being on the ticket
  • Yeah, Mayor Commie McFuckstick jumped into the race a couple of months ago.
  • 2.FOH. said:

    I'd bet on Biden & Harris...

    & would lose that bet.
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